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Eclairages Economiques - le blog

Dette publique et conflit intergénérationnel

"The heart of the matter is the way public debt allows the current generation of voters to live at the expense of those as yet too young to vote or as yet unborn. (...) But the official debts in the form of bonds do not include the often far larger unfunded liabilities of welfare schemes like – to give the biggest American programmes – Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. (...)

To illustrate the magnitude of the problem, the economist Laurence Kotlikoff calculates that to eliminate the federal government’s fiscal gap would require either an immediate 64 per cent increase in all federal taxes or an immediate 40 per cent cut in all federal expenditures. (...)

It is surprisingly easy to win the support of young voters for policies that would ultimately make matters even worse for them, like maintaining defined benefit pensions for public employees. If young Americans knew what was good for them, they would all be in the Tea Party."

Niall Ferguson, Professeur d'histoire à Harvard -- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9338997/Reith-Lecture-Were-mortgaging-the-future-of-the-younger-generation.html

Les divergences France-Allemagne s'accentuent, tant au niveau économique que politique

"Lasse d'incrédulité, l'Allemagne ne cache plus son irritation à l'égard de François Hollande. La stratégie du président français pour sortir la zone euro et la France de la crise dépasse l'entendement pour la classe dirigeante outre-Rhin. (...) Berlin se désole de ne pouvoir compter sur son partenaire historique dans la construction européenne au moment crucial où la zone euro doit se réorganiser pour affronter l'avenir. En fustigeant la «médiocrité», qui ne doit pas devenir l'étalon» en Europe, la semaine dernière, Angela Merkel visait bien la France (...) «Sarkozy avait su saisir la chance de cette alliance Merkozy», pour arracher des concessions à Merkel, souligne le Financial Times Deutschland dans un article intitulé: «Monsieur le président, rompez vos promesses!» (...) «Nous avons été abasourdis, confie un haut fonctionnaire allemand. Nous ne comprenons pas l'acharnement avec lequel Hollande cherche à rallier la France au club des PIGS (Portugal, Italie, Grèce, Espagne)."

http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2012/06/22/20002-20120622ARTFIG00591-l-allemagne-incredule-devant-l-attitude-francaise.php 

L'explosion de l'euro

Une analyse très complète de John Cochrane, Professeur de Finance à l'Université de Chicago : http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.ca/2012/06/euro-explosion.html#more

Les limites de l'imposition des "riches"

David Cameron au G20: "When France sets a 75% top income tax we will roll out the red carpet and we will welcome more French businesses who will pay their taxes in Britain. That will pay for our public services and schools.”

http://www.euronews.com/2012/06/19/cameron-invites-over-taxed-french-bosses-to-blighty/  

La fausse opposition entre austérité et croissance

L'austérité n'est pas incompatible avec la croissance, mais seulement si elle est conduite par une réduction des dépenses publiques et non par une augmentation des prélèvements obligatoires :

"The accumulated evidence from over 40 years of fiscal adjustments across the OECD speaks loud and clear:

  • First, adjustments achieved through spending cuts are less recessionary than those achieved through tax increases.
  • Second, spending-based consolidations accompanied by the right polices tend to be less recessionary or even have a positive impact on growth.
  • Third, only spending-based adjustments have eventually led to a permanent consolidation of the budget, as measured by the stabilisation – if not the reduction – of debt-to-GDP ratios."

(...) "Tax-based stabilisations not only eventually fail, in the sense that they are unable to stop the growth of the debt-to-GDP ratio. When these fiscal packages are announced entrepreneurs’ confidence falls sharply, and this is reflected in a fall in output. On the other hand, spending-based stabilisations (especially if accompanied by appropriate contemporaneous polices) do not negatively affect economic confidence contemporaneously. Moreover they are often accompanied by an increase in output within a year."

Source : http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/7836

"The recession of the early 1980s was equally severe in countries that cut public spending and those that did not (...) This suggests that the "German view" of negative fiscal multipliers cannot be easily dismissed-at least for the countries where spending cuts were sharpest (...) This evidence consistently points to the experiences of Denmark and Ireland as the two most striking cases of "expansionary stabilizations" in Europe. (...) Why does the experience of Denmark so sharply contradict the Keynesian prediction about the effects of a fiscal contradiction? (...) [This] offers an opportunity to identify the conditions under which severe fiscal contractions can be expansionary."

Source : http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10973.pdf 

Le socialisme incompatible avec l'emploi et la croissance ?

Le discours de Laurence Parisot : "les projets de réformes économiques et sociales du gouvernement de Jean-Marc Ayrault se traduisent par «une angoisse palpable et une inquiétude immense chez tous les entrepreneurs (...) les projets du nouvel exécutif sont totalement «déconnectés de la vie de l'entreprise, de ce que peut supporter une entreprise (...) De partout on a les mêmes informations: effondrement des marges, chute des carnets de commande, tensions sur les trésoreries, gel des projets d'embauche, suppression des projets d'investissements… Il existe une grande part de désarroi actuellement."

http://www.lefigaro.fr/social/2012/06/19/09010-20120619ARTFIG00647-parisot-les-entreprises-risquent-l-etranglement.php

 

La contrainte politique en Allemagne

"Hassloch Mayor Hans-Ulrich Ihlenfeld said his constituents “just won’t accept” giving more money to Greece. (...) “We can’t go on funding the Greeks, they’re beyond help. It’s better to have an end with horror than horror without an end”."

Source : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-11/pulling-plug-on-greece-sells-in-german-town-opposing-merkel-plan.html

 

Faut-il limiter les salaires des dirigeants ?

Encadrement des salaires : "Il faut d’abord améliorer la gouvernance des entreprises"

http://www.terraeco.net/Encadrement-des-salaires-Il-faut-d,44335.html

L'assommoir fiscal

Le parti socialiste prépare 12 milliards d'augmentation des prélèvements obligatoires. "François Hollande fait passer la pilule des taxes supplémentaires en parlant de «réforme fiscale», au service de la justice. Pourtant, ailleurs en Europe, des dirigeants de gauche n'ont pas hésité à faire l'inverse, en taillant dans les dépenses publiques et en réformant le système social. Le chancelier Gerhard Schröder, qui a redressé la compétitivité de l'Allemagne, était social-démocrate."

http://elections.lefigaro.fr/presidentielle-2012/2012/06/08/01039-20120608ARTFIG00433-impots-ce-que-la-gauche-mijote.php

Renchérir le coût des licenciements pour les diminuer ?

Une mauvaise solution, malheureusement envisagée par le gouvernement socialiste. Les conséquences : 

  1. Mass layoffs will occur before the law passes.
  2. Companies will move any jobs they can overseas.   
  3. Ongoing, if it's difficult to fire people, companies will not hire them in the first place. 
  4. Corporate profits will collapse along with the stock market should the need to fire people arise.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/06/hollande-about-to-wreck-france-with.html

Les incitations et le travail

Pour l'économiste Robert Barro (Harvard), les mesures "sociales" d'assistance diminuent les incitations à travailler et peuvent expliquer la faiblesse de la croissance économique : 

Consider the expansion of social-safety-net programs, including food stamps, unemployment insurance, Medicaid (prospectively) and housing and mortgage programs. In a study published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan observed that, because these programs were means-tested (falling or ending as income rises), expanding them raised the effective marginal tax rate on labor income.

Specifically, Mr. Mulligan estimates that the effective marginal tax rate for low-income households went from around 40% in 2007, before the recession started, to about 48% in 2009, at the start of the recovery. Thus, while these programs may be attractive from the standpoint of assisting poor families, they dilute incentives to work.

To achieve a real recovery, government policy should focus on individual incentives to work, produce and invest. Central here are tax rates and regulations, including especially clarity about future policies. In a successful policy package, the government would get its fiscal house in order and make meaningful long-term reforms to entitlement programs and the tax structure.

Source : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303918204577444222179044362.html

L'avenir de la zone euro très incertain

Dans une élection dans 15 jours, les Grecs devront choisir entre la rigueur indispensable au rétablissement des équilibres économiques, ou la fuite en avant incarnée par le parti d'extrême gauche Syriza. Ce parti est très bien placé dans les sondages. S'il était élu et rejetait les accords avec l'Europe, il est probable que la Grèce soit forcée de quitter la zone euro. En particulier, la BCE pourrait cesser de refinancer non seulement les banques grecques (c'est déjà le cas, cf. les billets de blog ci-dessous) mais aussi la banque centrale grecque, et les autres pays européens pourraient cesser d'envoyer toujours plus d'argent en Grèce. 

http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2012/06/01/20002-20120601ARTFIG00643-grece-tsipras-annulera-le-plan-d-austerite-s-il-est-elu.php

La fin du rêve européen de la France

"The pro-euro politicians ignored economists’ warnings that imposing a single currency on a dozen heterogeneous countries was bound to create serious economic problems. They regarded the economic risks as unimportant relative to their agenda of political unification. But the creation of the euro caused a sharp fall in interest rates in the peripheral countries, leading to debt-financed housing bubbles and encouraging their governments to borrow to finance increased government spending. (...) That ended in 2010, after Greece admitted that it had lied about its budget deficits and debt. The conditions in Greece are now hopeless, and are likely to lead to further defaults and a withdrawal from the eurozone. Spain, too, is in serious trouble, owing to the budget deficits of its traditionally independent regional governments, the weakness of its banks, and its need to roll over large sovereign-debt balances each year. (...) The fiscal compact is an empty gesture that may be the last attempt to pretend that EU members are moving toward political unification. The European project has clearly failed to achieve what French political leaders have wanted from the beginning. Instead of the amity and sense of purpose of which Monnet and Schuman dreamed, there is conflict and disarray. 

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/france-s-broken-dream

 

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