Pragmatique, rationnel, indépendant

Eclairages Economiques - le blog

La France doit se réinventer : la fin du modèle social français

"The real problem may be that the twin pillars on which the much-vaunted “French exception” has been built since 1945 are wobbling. At home, France took pride in its “social model” of a powerful and generous state. Overseas, the country’s global power was to be rebuilt through an EU constructed around a “Franco-German motor”. The EU, however, is now in deep crisis. And the pretence that it is being jointly run by France and Germany has been stripped away by the gap in economic performance between the two nations. (...) The certainty of further cuts in public spending underlines that France’s vaunted social model has peaked. (...) France is simply going to have to get on with the hard and unglamorous task of economic reform."

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NB: le "modèle social" français n'est ni un modèle ni social, comme on le montre par exemple ici


La croissance faible, bis

Ca ne s'arrange pas : 

Cela suggère que les taux d'intérêts faibles vont persister pour de nombreuses années encore.


Lakshmi Mittal sur la France

Selon le CEO d'ArcelorMittal : "high labour and energy costs keep France at a competitive disadvantage. (...) In France, labour costs are 20 percent higher than in  Spain and labour laws are still too rigid."

Friedman et la crise de l'euro

Milton Friedman n'avait pas seulement prévu la stagflation des années 1970 suite à l'abus de politiques de relance conjoncturelles. Il avait aussi prévu la crise de l'euro il y a plus de 15 ans ! Extraits :

"By contrast, Europe’s common market exemplifies a situation that is unfavorable to a common currency. It is composed of separate nations, whose residents speak different languages (...) wages and prices in Europe are more rigid, and labor less mobile. In those circumstances, flexible exchange rates provide an extremely useful adjustment mechanism. (...) The drive for the Euro has been motivated by politics not economics. (...) I believe that adoption of the Euro (...) would exacerbate political tensions by converting divergent shocks that could have been readily accommodated by exchange rate changes into divisive political issues."

Un article visionnaire écrit en... 1997.

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Une politique économique alternative

"Les partisans de la prétendue politique alternative - Arnaud Montebourg, Benoît Hamon, Cécile Duflot - proposent d'amplifier tout ce qui a échoué : la hausse des impôts qui a relancé la récession, la redistribution qui a sapé la production, l'envolée des coûts du travail qui a miné la compétitivité et installé le chômage permanent, la préférence pour la dépense publique qui a étouffé l'État et l'a surendetté. Leur seul apport réside dans le protectionnisme et la sortie de l'euro, qui relègueraient définitivement la France hors des puissances économiques de premier rang et ruineraient soixante ans d'intégration européenne."

Nicolas Baverez,

La croissance faible


Trouver son mari à l'école ou à l'université...?

"Men regularly marry women who are younger, less intelligent, less educated. It’s amazing how forgiving men can be about a woman’s lack of erudition, if she is exceptionally pretty. Smart women can’t (shouldn’t) marry men who aren’t at least their intellectual equal. As Princeton women, we have almost priced ourselves out of the market. Simply put, there is a very limited population of men who are as smart or smarter than we are … you will never again be surrounded by this concentration of men who are worthy of you." Princeton alumni Susan A. Patton

"The idea that women may have stronger preferences than men do for assortative matches - that is, for marrying mates who are like them - has a long literature in economics and to some extent has been supported by data."

Les effets pervers des congés maternité

"“In a regime where anyone can go part time, where it’s hard to get rid of people if they do, employers might sort on the front end and not hire people they think are likely to want to go part time, which usually means women,” said Lawrence F. Katz, an economist at Harvard. “There may be no way a woman can credibly commit to sticking around and not going part time.” The U.S., where these policies do not exist, has the smallest gap between women’s representation in the labor force and their representation in senior management positions."

Les taux bas vont-ils durer ?

Pour Martin Feldstein, non :

Il omet quand même de dire que les taux sont bas en ce moment parce que la croissance économique est faible et l'incertitude (notamment politique) élevée.

Exil fiscal : les emplois non-créés

Selon la fondation Concorde, le départ de plusieurs milliers d'entrepreneurs aurait fait perdre un million d'emplois directs en vingt ans.

Pays nordiques : le prochain modèle ?

"Tax-and-spend did not work: Sweden fell from being the fourth-richest country in the world in 1970 to the 14th in 1993.

Since then the Nordics have changed course—mainly to the right. Government’s share of GDP in Sweden, which has dropped by around 18 percentage points, is lower than France’s and could soon be lower than Britain’s. Taxes have been cut: the corporate rate is 22%. (...) Sweden has reformed its pension system. Its budget deficit is 0.3% of GDP.

On public services the Nordics have been similarly pragmatic. So long as public services work, they do not mind who provides them. Denmark and Norway allow private firms to run public hospitals. Sweden has a universal system of school vouchers, with private for-profit schools competing with public schools. (...)

They are stout free-traders who resist the temptation to intervene even to protect iconic companies (...)

Their levels of taxation still encourage entrepreneurs to move abroad: London is full of clever young Swedes. Too many people—especially immigrants—live off benefits."

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Les échecs de l'Etat

"Karl Marx dismissed “the executive of the modern state” as nothing more than a “committee for managing the common affairs of the whole bourgeoisie”. To which the only sensible response from a bourgeois perspective is: if only. (...) Too ma...ny governments cannot cope with 19th-century problems like rail routes let alone 21st-century ones like cyber-security. Bad government is one of business’s biggest problems. In the rich world it is too burdensome. In the poor one it is too patchy. And everywhere it is too slow and inflexible, hogtied by vested interests and red tape, or hijacked by ideological zealots."

Chypre : le début d'une panique bancaire

En contrepartie d'un plan de sauvetage de l'île, les dépôts bancaires à Chypre vont subir une "taxe" exceptionnelle de 6,75% (9,9% au-delà de 100 000 euros). Il n'en faut pas plus pour attiser les peurs et lancer une panique bancaire. Pour modérer son ampleur à Chypre, des restrictions sur les retraits d'argent et les transferts de fonds à l'étranger ont été imposées. Les épargnants sont clairement pris au piège. Les implications pour les autres pays européens sont inquiétantes.

Ainsi, selon le Financial Times : "Sir Mervyn King once said it was not rational to start a bank run but rational to participate in one once it has started. On Saturday morning, the finance ministers of the eurozone may well have started a bank run. (...) the eurozone has effectively defaulted on a deposit insurance guarantee for bank deposits. (...) If one wanted to feed the political mood of insurrection in southern Europe, this was the way to do it. (...) As in the case of Greece, the finance ministers said: “Don’t worry, this is a unique situation.”"

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Comment se protéger contre ce type d'expropriation ? Pour cela, il vaut mieux éviter d'avoir des actifs liquides à la banque. Les dépôts bien sûr, mais aussi les instruments d'épargne très liquides type livret A sont vulnérables. Ensuite, les comptes titres sont également vulnérables, bien que moins liquides. Les actifs réels (immobilier, art, matières premières, vin, pierres précieuses, etc.) sont encore moins liquides et donc encore moins vulnérables à ce type de prélèvement.

PS: l'Europe n'est pas tendre avec ses petits membres moins influents "Emergency liquidity [providedy by the ECB to banks in Cyprus] to be suspended if no bailout plan by Monday"

La France en situation quasi-insurrectionnelle ?

"L’urgence aujourd’hui, c’est la situation sociale en France. J’ai vu, comme d’autres, la note des Renseignements Généraux qui parle de situation quasi insurrectionnelle. Il faut bien comprendre qu’on pourrait avoir demain des évènements sociaux en France qui déborderaient tout le monde : syndicats, patronat, organisations politiques. Notre pays est au bord de la rupture sociale, ça craque."

Source : (2mn15)

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