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Eclairages Economiques - le blog

Une fiscalité excessive qui appauvrit les Français et l'Etat

"Et si la France avait atteint le point de rupture en matière de fiscalité, celui à partir duquel «trop d'impôt tue l'impôt»? Les chiffres, en tout cas, semblent le confirmer. Depuis deux ans, les différents gouvernements n'ont cessé d'augmenter les prélèvements. Pourtant, les recettes fiscales ont stagné"

"L'analyse de ce qui s'est passé en 2013 démontrera que les politiques d'alourdissement de prélèvements obligatoires ont franchi les limites de l'efficience, et du raisonnable. La matière fiscale s'évapore. Vouloir aller au-delà serait un élément de plus d'étouffement de l'activité (...) La seule voie raisonnable est celle de la baisse de la dépense publique. Je dis bien la baisse, pas le ralentissement du rythme de progression." selon Henri de Castries.

Sources : 

http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/08/02/20002-20130802ARTFIG00483-le-niveau-des-prelevements-a-franchi-les-limites-du-raisonnable.php

http://www.lefigaro.fr/mon-figaro/2013/06/07/10001-20130607ARTFIG00566-une-fiscalite-excessive-qui-appauvrit-l-etat.php

 

L'Italie en crise

"The truth is that the Italian state went bankrupt in summer 2011, when interest rates on the national debt went out of control, and as a result Italy lost access to the financial markets. Of course, because of the sheer dimensions of Italy as an economy and as a debtor, the ECB and political authorities in Europe have agreed to create around the country’s finances the appearance of a market, which is in fact, as the numbers above show, largely artificial. Ideally, Italy should stay on this artificial support until the economic conditions improve and confidence is restored to such a level that the country will have again access to a “normal” credit market. However, this is not happening and there is no sign it is going to happen in the years to come. The situation of the Italian economy is simply dramatic."

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/eurocrisispress/2013/04/23/the-quiet-collapse-of-the-italian-economy/

L'ascenseur social aux Etats-Unis

Pour Mark Perry : "Yes, the middle class has been disappearing, but they haven’t fallen into the lower class, they’ve risen into the upper class." 

Source : http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/yes-the-middle-class-has-been-disappearing-but-they-havent-fallen-into-the-lower-class-theyve-risen-into-the-upper-class/

Investir dans la pierre

L'analyse de The Economist : "The global economy faces four potential outcomes: a return to healthy growth (in which case rents should rise); a low-growth, low-inflation period in the doldrums (in which case the income appeal of property should help); a return of rapid inflation (as a real asset, property should offer some protection); or a deflationary slump. Only in the last case would property suffer."

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21579859-commercial-property-may-benefit-its-income-appeal-building-next-boom

 

 

La France s'obstine à ne pas s'ajuster et ne pas se réformer

"Some troubled countries, including Greece, are adjusting nevertheless—either because bail-out programmes require the liberalisation of labour and product markets, or because unemployment is brutally forcing down wages. France presents a bigger conundrum. It is not under pressure from markets. It is too big to be bossed around by Eurocrats. And it is too important for Germany to criticise loudly. The decline of France could sink the euro." 

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21578408-euro-zones-long-road-recoveryor-decline-hobbling-behind-america

Retraites : l'expropriation continue

"Si la jeunesse s’attend à un départ à la retraite à 70 ans, et en conservant les paramètres actuels du régime général, le rendement qu’elle peut attendre de son investissement est nul. En particulier, la pension que recevra un homme sera deux fois moindre que la rente qu’il aurait obtenue en prêtant ses cotisations à l’Etat. [i.e., en investissant lui-même dans des titres à faible rendement]"

http://theoreme-du-bien-etre.net/2013/06/11/retraites-pourquoi-la-jeunesse-devrait-se-revolter/

Notre article sur le sujet : http://www.eclaireco.org/Retraites 

 

 

L'Europe n'est pas sortie de la crise !

Selon un article récent de The Economist :

"America has recovered before Europe not just because it has been less austere, but also because it rapidly sorted out its banks so that they could lend again. (...) the euro zone needs growth-boosting reform. The EU should extend the single market further into services. (...) it should ease austerity (...) Clearly, the reason for today’s inaction is not a shortage of things to do, but a shortage of the will to do them. (...) Across Europe voters have grown resentful of both their own politicians and the EU. (...) the financial markets have been anaesthetised ever since Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), promised to “do whatever it takes” to protect the euro zone from collapse."

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21578386-euro-zone-desperately-need-boost-no-news-bad-news-sleepwalkers

 

La France fait parler d'elle

"In a note to investors, [the boss of CQS, one of London’s biggest hedge funds] Mr Hintze has said: “While Cyprus has stolen the news headlines of late, I am concerned that the eurozone’s problems could soon turn to the ‘core’, and in particular the focus could be on France.” (...)

Mr Hintze said: “President Hollande’s ability to drive structural reform may be limited by his ability and willingness (and the Socialist Party’s support of him) to pursue the deeper economic reforms that are required – the tax and benefits system, deep reductions in government spending and public administration, and extensive reforms to pensions and the labour market.” He added: “In a country where more than half of the voting population is employed (directly or indirectly) by the state, can France’s leadership tackle the difficult choices that exist?”"

Source : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10061805/Car-burnings-rise-as-France-threatens-to-take-euro-crisis-to-higher-plane-says-hedge-fund-boss-Michael-Hintze.html?fb 

Keynes : une théorie limitée à un certain contexte

Larry Summers, secrétaire d'Etat au Trésor sous Bill Clinton, et adversaire reconnu des politiques d'austérité, rappelle toutefois que la théorie de Keynes ne s'applique que dans un contexte particulier, et qu'il est impossible de continuellement relancer l'économie :

"Mark Blyth often seems to forget that in a world where the present value of what a government spends must ultimately be constrained by the present value of the revenue it collects, issuing debt is not an alternative to cutting spending or raising taxes but only a way of deferring these painful steps.

The issue here is a broad one. Keynes could have more accurately titled his landmark work. Instead of being a “General” theory it is, in fact, quite specific, explaining how demand-constrained economies in or near liquidity traps operate. Such a distinction would have avoided the misguided application of Keynesian policies that led to the stagflation of the 1970s and discredited Keynesian economics."

Source : http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/5097537a-a034-11e2-a6e1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2SWQlBwr4

 

 

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