Alors que la fin de l'année approche, nous nous livrons à l'exercice délicat de prévision boursière. Quelles sont les opportunités d'investissement pour 2010 ? Quels sont les dangers ?

C'est en effet le point de vue du Professeur d'Harvard Dani Rodrik. Dans un article publié dans The Economist, sa démonstration est la suivante:

Les marchés actions sont en chute libre, les banques s'effondrent, les hommes politiques sont perdus.

Que faire? 
 

The problem: Banks are overburdened with mortgage securities and other risky debt instruments, and have difficulties rolling over their funding. Meanwhile, the market is valuing mortgage securities at fire sale prices, according to Ben Bernanke.

The mechanism: reverse auctions, banks and other institutions bid to sell their assets to the government. The Treasury gets nonvoting call options in companies that participate.

In recent years, banks have taken more risk, have relied on contingent and unstable funding, have stretched their balance-sheet to the limit, and have generally based their operations on the assumption of the continuation of business as usual. The subprime crisis has triggered a painful process of unwinding.