Pragmatique, rationnel, indépendant

La difficile politique de l'austérité... et la prochaine crise

Comment les économies peuvent-elles s'ajuster à un choc négatif ? Une baisse du pouvoir d'achat ou des dépenses publiques, même nécessaires, sont politiquement difficiles à faire passer dans les démocraties occidentales. La solution généralement appliquée consiste à enfler encore et encore la dette publique... jusqu'à ce que la bulle explose. Les citations qui suivent sont édifiantes: 

"Long periods of economic expansion means that citizens in the US and the UK have developed a sense of entitlement. (…) So rather than taking the axe to public spending, the British and American governments are borrowing madly, with no sign of any credible long-term plan to balance the books. (…) Prof Helm reckons that sustainable consumption in Britain "may be as much as 20 percent lower than at the peak in 2006-2007". But try telling the British or American publics that they might have to accept a 20 percent drop in living standards." Gideon Rachman, Financial Times du 26 mai 2009. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f4020c0a-4956-11de-9e19-00144feabdc0.html

"The next leg in the crisis will come when (or if) the huge fiscal deficits themselves become unsustainable." Martin Wolf, Financial Times du 24 avril 2009. www.ft.com/cms/s/0/303ec064-3039-11de-88e3-00144feabdc0.html

"A permanent 60 per cent across-the-board tax increase would be required to balance the [U.S. federal] budget. Clearly this will not and should not happen. So how else can debt service payments be brought down as a share of GDP? Inflation will do it."  John Taylor, Financial Times du 26 mai 2009. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/71520770-4a2c-11de-8e7e-00144feabdc0.html