"This paper studies whether fiscal corrections cause large output losses. We find that it matters crucially how the fiscal correction occurs. Adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly in terms of output losses than tax-based ones. Spending-based adjustments have been associated with mild and short-lived recessions, in many cases with no recession at all. Tax-based adjustments have been associated with prolonged and deep recessions.

Dans un article du Financial Times d'aujourd'hui, Martin Wolf se livre à des calculs simples pour montrer qu'il est utopique de penser que la Grèce pourra s'en sortir sans restructurer sa dette publique (et probablement avec une sortie de l'euro) :